The Beyer Speed Rating is one of the most practical ways the handicapper should begin their journey to choosing the right horse. A horse’s speed can alter the race in how quickly he takes the lead or when he decides to turn down the stretch. The speed rating was created by Andrew Beyer and although it gives us a numerical representation of a horse’s performance as a function of the final time of the track he ran on. The higher the speed figure, the better the performance, sounds simple right? If one could go to the track and win in the highest speed ratings all the time, there would be no need for this website.
When you look at the rankings and see a horse that regularly wins numbers in the 50s and you find a handful of runners always in the 70s, we can generally rule this horse out. This brings to our attention that the horse is in a class below the horses he is up against. It’s not the actual figure that makes the difference, it’s how it got that speed. You are trying to limit the horse’s true speed, this is done by looking at past figures that stay in the same range. Also a true one can be determined by a horse that goes from wire to wire with no real challengers.
You also need to consider the horse that had a low speed rating last time, but has been stellar in previous ones. There could be a valid reason for this poor statistic. These horses can sometimes avoid the betting traffic and you can get some decent odds on a horse that wins the race easily. Look for the circumstances that offer the best value. Unfortunately, factors play into the speed number such as court bias, troublesome travel, coach conditioning, post position, coach intent, etc. Don’t let that discourage you the more you know about them the more accurate you will be with speed. ratings These ratings are basically something to compare one horse with another to see which one is superior. The problem with speed ratings is that they are only accurate enough for comparison if the same conditions were present that day over the same distance.
Numerous patterns have been studied to gain common ground between speed ratings, so in this modern age you can use them to your advantage in handicap horse racing. Here is a very simple approach that you can apply
* Do this for each horse in the program, the more recent the races, the better the prediction of the speed at which the horse will run
* Take the horses in the field and average their two best speed ratings over the distance today. (because distance plays a huge factor in a horse’s speed)
*take note if the races are on the same track that is being run today. If you can compare it to a horse that ran on the same track, it has direct speed ratings, and you choose the one that is higher.
*After doing this for each horse, I like to take note of the top 3 and continue with my handicap. This gives a good solid use for the beyer system in the modern age. This is a very simple process but very effective and gives you a solid number to start with.
As you can see, speed ranking can be played in a number of ways. If you have horses you are comparing actual Beyer speed ratings to. You want to find if they ran the same distance and the same track under the same conditions, then you have a real comparison. You can compare these horses with their heads up and choose the one that is higher.
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What I like to do is keep looking for overlays of why they had a great trip or a bad one. If the horse has just had a bad start that is uncharacteristic for him, then you can rule out that particular race that others are still watching. I always shoot the horses that have their overall speed rating much lower than the rest. Incorporate this simple formula while looking at the velocity rating and make sure this is one of several bullets in your gun.